What do Alaska, Georgia, Maine and Montana Have in Common?

By Fraser Perkins —

When you can’t win on the issues, attack the messenger.

When you can’t beat the messenger, attack the process.


This is where we are.  The opposition will bully, intimidate and use every tool at its disposal to win or steal the upcoming election.  In the remaining five weeks until Election Day they hope to discourage Democrats and Independents from voting, enabling their continuation in power.

We must not let this happen.  We must continue to call, text, donate and write postcards in support of Democrats everywhere.  The current Supreme Court nomination process underscores the importance in particular of the US Senate races.

The chart below summarizes the current status of close senate races.

The polling data comes from 538 and the 2016 voter participation comes from the United States Elections Project.  Multiplying Columns 4, 5 and 6 gives the number of votes needed to change the outcome of that race – Column 7.

The. conclusion is clear – many races are close, especially Alaska, Georgia, Maine and Montana

We need to do all we can to support the Democrat in each of these races.

Let’s do it!!

State Poll Date Margin 2016 Voter Participation Registered Voters Votes Needed to Change Result
Alaska Pub Policy Polling Aug 27 – 28 Even 61.5% 337,000 Few!
Arizona Data for Progress Sep 15 – 22 7% D 56.1% 3,260,000 128,020
Colorado Morning Consultant Sep 11 –20 7% D 71.9% 2,640,000 132,871
Georgia* Data for Progress Sep 14 – 19 Even 59.8% 4,840,000 Few!
Iowa Monmouth University Sep 18 – 22 1% D 69.1% 1,660,000 114,706
Maine Colby College Sep 17 -23 4% D 72.9 828,000 24,144
Michigan Hart Research Sep 17 – 19 8% D 65.7 5,450,000 286,452
Montana Siena College/NYT Sep 14 – 16 1% R 64.3 579,000 3,723
North Carolina Change Research Sep 18 – 20 5% D 64.9 5,160,000 167,442
  • Ossoff.  The other GA race will probably end up in a run-off.

I assume participation rates will be roughly the same – rates will probably increase in 2020, but most likely won’t change the numbers much.


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