Prior to the 2016 elections, and in response to a Facebook post by a friend who expressed fear about the future of the country, I wrote the following. I would love to hear your comments!
- For me, I see Al Qaida a much reduced strategic threat and ISIS’s dreams of a caliphate being crushed (which is why they are shifting to lone wolf attacks).
- Contrary to RNC claims, violent crime is down… a Congressional Research Service report stated in Oct 2015: “Overall, homicide and violent crime rates have been trending downward for more than two decades, and both rates are at historic lows.”
- I see unemployment at 4.9% and GDP growth (albeit small) in every quarter but one since the recession.
- The Federal debt is yuge, but Trump’s approach won’t solve that. The US saw 8 straight years with a consistent increase of either deficit reduction or surplus growth during the Clinton years, including 4 years of budget surplus. That trend was immediately reversed during the GWB presidency, capped off by a recession that tanked the deficit through a combination of reduced revenue and bi-partisan stimulus spending. And, that was no accident–the federal debt, normalized by GDP, has grown under every Republican president since Ford, and shrunk under both Democratic president not saddled by the worst recession since the Great Depression. During Obama’s two terms, the deficit spending has decreased or stayed nearly the same every year after the recession (although he was helped along by the Republican inspired sequestration).
- The 3 things that pop into my mind that worry me… First, climate change. If you think it’s an issue, it should be clear that Trump would be the poison, not the antidote. Second, sluggish economy, deficit spending, and wealth/income inequality. Again, based on my previous post, same comment about Trump. Third, Russian expansionism. We’ll see how the global oil surplus will affect that, but so far, it’s putting a tremendous strain on the Russian economy and their ability to continue on their recent path.
- So, call me an optimist…